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Carpenter Morrison's avatar

Super cool episode. Can we learn about the Brazilian state's role in Embraer and Vale in future episodes? Rosatom and Kepco also stand out as important export-grade high tech firms. Should Indonesia investigate ways to transform coal into oil, fertilizer etc? Should India discover and develop antibiótics? Should states send their scientists, managers, and engineers to Embrapa, Fiocruz, ITRI as apprentices?

Stephen Brien's avatar

Nice to see some more detail on ITRI, given my reference to it yesterday. The lessons of building human capital first, identifying a constituency, and picking a focused contextual bet make sense as design principles.

But Embrapa worked in part because the Brazilian military government in 1973 actively supported Cerrado agriculture and was willing to protect the institute during the transition to civilian rule. That is a political bargain. The institute secured the budget, autonomy, and protection to run its first decade without distributional accountability. By the time democratic pressures arrived, the Cerrado soy sector existed and had financial reasons to defend it.

CGIAR centres have operated comparably across sub-Saharan Africa for five decades. The science has been real. However, no sub-Saharan country has undergone a Cerrado-scale agricultural transformation on the back of it. The mandates have been comparable. What has not been comparable is the political settlement in which each institute was embedded.

CGIAR centres, accountable to a diffuse international donor community rather than a single executive committed to a specific national transformation, had no such enabling settlement from their founding. ITRI and Embrapa had what CGIAR lacked: a single government that wanted the transformation and would protect the institute long enough for results to emerge.

Karthik is right to flag survivorship bias. But the surviving cases are not distributed randomly - and that is informative. The cases that succeeded shared a founding condition that institutional design alone could not provide: a government willing to protect it through a decade of no visible returns. That window opened for both ITRI and Embrapa coincidentally in 1973. It has hardly opened anywhere else since. The institute is necessary but not sufficient. The political bargain that lets such an organisation establish itself is rarer and potentially more critical.

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